St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Michael ConfortoBatting2-3
- Shota ImanagaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burleson singled to right, Walker scored.3–0
- 3Herrera singled to center, Church scored, Wetherholt to second.2–0
- 1Wetherholt homered to left center (364 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML STL +146 / CHC -178
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.1%, market 61.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -158
- STL +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +57 Elo | CHC 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 61.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 26–187th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–36 | 37–51 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44–5 | 46–37–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 20–23 CHC in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 43.