Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Graham PauleyBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Bryan TorresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Pauley hit a ground rule double, Caissie scored.1–2
- 2Torres homered to right (364 feet), Winn scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML MIA +104 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- STL: Elo 49.5%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -113
- MIA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 21st of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 22–2117th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Elo rating | 148720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–42 | 46–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–36–3 | 34–41–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–11 STL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.