Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4
- Kyle LeahyPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crooks singled to right, Burleson scored.4–3
- 9Jordan hit sacrifice fly to right, Fermín scored, Burleson to third.4–2
- 9Burleson doubled to right, Nootbaar scored, Fermín to third.4–1
- 9Barrosa scored on a passed ball by Crooks, Troy to third and Marte to second.4–0
- 9Barrosa scored on a passed ball by Crooks, Marte to second on passed ball by Crooks, Troy to third on passed ball by Crooks.4–0
- 9Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Vargas and Arenado scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.3–0
- 9Arenado doubled to left, Moreno scored, Vargas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML ARI -107 / STL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- STL: Elo 48.6%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- STL -102
- ARI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −8 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +10 Elo | ARI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 22–1710th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 14th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–35 | 46–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–22 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 28–13 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–41–6 | 33–38–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–10 STL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.