Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Jorge BarrosaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perdomo grounded out to third, Barrosa scored, Tawa to second, Troy to third.16–8
- 7Smith singled to left, Vargas scored.16–7
- 7Vargas doubled to right, Barrosa scored, Perdomo scored and Troy scored.16–6
- 7Perdomo walked, Del Castillo scored, Troy to second, Barrosa to third.16–3
- 5Barrosa homered to right center (400 feet), Del Castillo scored.16–2
- 5Kreidler tripled to right, Caratini scored and Keaschall scored.16–0
- 5Caratini singled to right, Bell scored and Lee scored.14–0
- 5Buxton homered to right center (402 feet), Keaschall scored, Kreidler scored and Larnach scored.12–0
- 5Kreidler singled to left, Caratini scored, Keaschall to second.8–0
- 5Caratini doubled to center, Lee scored.7–0
- 4Clemens singled to center, Kreidler scored, Larnach to second.6–0
- 4Larnach singled to right, Caratini scored and Keaschall scored, Kreidler to third.5–0
- 4Kreidler reached on infield single to second, Lee scored, Keaschall to second, Caratini to third.3–0
- 1Lee singled to right, Bell scored and Larnach scored, Lewis to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML MIN +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +43 Elo | ARI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 23–146th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 28th of 301473 | Elo rating | 150313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–39 | 42–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 15–20 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 45–26–6 | 30–39–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–4 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.