Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Foscue homered to center (429 feet).9–3
- 8Kreidler homered to right center (397 feet), Caratini scored.9–2
- 6Duran homered to left (374 feet).7–2
- 6Langford homered to left (366 feet).7–1
- 6Larnach singled to left, Caratini scored, Keaschall to second.7–0
- 4Larnach homered to center (419 feet), Keaschall scored.6–0
- 1Lee homered to right (365 feet), Clemens scored and Bell scored.4–0
- 1Bell singled to right, Larnach scored, Clemens to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -123 / TEX +102
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 45.3%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- TEX +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +33 Elo | TEX 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 28th of 301471 | Elo rating | 150113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–38 | 32–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 13–26 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–26–6 | 30–36–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 15–7 TEX in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.