Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike ParedesPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Buxton homered to left center (398 feet).4–2
- 3Pederson homered to right (394 feet), Díaz scored.3–2
- 1Bell homered to left (376 feet), Martin scored and Lewis scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML MIN +124 / TEX -149
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.7%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -134
- MIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −4 | MIN: Mike Paredes: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +47 Elo | TEX 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 24th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 17–1411th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 28th of 301465 | Elo rating | 150713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–38 | 32–39 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 13–24 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–25–6 | 29–35–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–7 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.