Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting4-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting2-3
- Kumar RockerPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fedko hit sacrifice fly to left, Jackson scored.12–2
- 9Jackson doubled to center, Keaschall scored.11–2
- 5Díaz doubled to center, Osuna scored.10–2
- 4Duran grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Langford scored, Nimmo out at second.10–1
- 4Keaschall singled to left, Bell scored.10–0
- 4Bell doubled to right, throwing error by right fielder Nimmo, Clemens and Lewis scored on error.9–0
- 4Lewis singled to center, Buxton scored and Jackson scored, Clemens to third.7–0
- 3Clemens homered to right (367 feet), Larnach scored and Buxton scored.5–0
- 1Bell singled to left, Buxton scored.2–0
- 1Larnach homered to right (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML MIN +108 / TEX -131
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.4%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -118
- MIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −6 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +59 Elo | TEX 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 17–1515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 28th of 301467 | Elo rating | 150513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–38 | 32–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–26–6 | 29–36–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 14–7 TEX in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.