Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Drey JamesonPitching1.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll tripled to right, Troy scored, Smith scored and Perdomo scored.5–9
- 8Lewis homered to center (427 feet).5–6
- 8Bell homered to center (435 feet).4–6
- 6Marte homered to left (375 feet).3–6
- 5Vargas singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored and Arenado scored, Vargas to second.3–5
- 5Gurriel Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carroll scored, Moreno out at second.3–3
- 5Perdomo scored on error, Moreno safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Lee, Carroll safe at third on error.3–2
- 4Gray singled to center, Lee scored, Caratini to second.3–1
- 3Carroll singled to left, Groover scored, Perdomo to second.2–1
- 3Clemens doubled to left, Keaschall scored.2–0
- 2Caratini homered to right center (430 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML MIN +144 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.5%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- ARI -155
- MIN +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +4 | MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +67 Elo | ARI 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 22–147th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 28th of 301475 | Elo rating | 150113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–38 | 41–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 14–20 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 44–26–6 | 29–39–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 1–8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–3 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.