Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mike ParedesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jose CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Larnach doubled to center, Martin scored.4–2
- 7Jackson singled to right, Kreidler scored on error and Bell scored on throwing error by right fielder Carroll, Jackson to second.3–2
- 7Bell singled to center, Lewis scored, Kreidler to third.1–2
- 2Marte doubled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML MIN +113 / ARI -136
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +1 | MIN: Mike Paredes: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ARI: Jose Cabrera (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +24 Elo | ARI 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 23–157th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 25th of 301476 | Elo rating | 149913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–39 | 42–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 30–22 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 46–26–6 | 31–39–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–4 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.