Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy TroyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Nathan ChurchBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Troy homered to center (444 feet).2–3
- 6Arenado grounded out to shortstop, Carroll scored.1–3
- 4Church singled to left, Winn scored.0–3
- 4Jordan hit sacrifice fly to center, Nootbaar scored, Winn to third.0–2
- 3Burleson reached on infield single to second, Church scored, Herrera to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML ARI +119 / STL -144
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- STL: Elo 54.0%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -129
- ARI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +28 Elo | STL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 21–1711th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 14th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–35 | 46–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–22 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 27–13 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–40–6 | 33–37–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–9 STL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.