Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting2-4
- Andre PallantePitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lopez singled to right, Edwards scored, Lopez to second.5–1
- 6Winn singled to right, Walker scored, Nootbaar to second.4–1
- 4Edwards singled to left, Sanoja scored, Edwards thrown out at second.4–0
- 4Sanoja singled to right, Marsee scored.3–0
- 3Stowers singled to center, Mack scored.2–0
- 1Stowers singled to right, Lopez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML MIA +118 / STL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- STL: Elo 53.9%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -128
- MIA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +9 | MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +27 Elo | STL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 22–2016th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–42 | 46–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–35–3 | 34–40–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–11 STL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.