Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose CorniellPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Owen CaissieBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nimmo tripled to center, Langford scored.4–6
- 9Pederson homered to right center (384 feet).3–6
- 8Nimmo homered to right center (412 feet).2–6
- 5Mack singled to left, Hernández scored.1–6
- 5Caissie homered to right (367 feet), Lopez scored and Edwards scored.1–5
- 4Mack homered to right center (395 feet).1–2
- 2Hernández homered to center (416 feet).1–1
- 2Lopez grounded out to first, Osuna scored, Higashioka to second, Kelenic to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 58%
- ML TEX +130 / MIA -157
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 55.3%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -141
- TEX +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | +1 | TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 1.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +37 Elo | MIA 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 26–176th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–44 | 37–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38–7 | 43–33–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.