San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Langford reached on infield single to third, Díaz scored.6–4
- 10Machado homered to left center (408 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Taylor scored.6–3
- 8Merrill singled to right, Taylor scored.3–3
- 8Machado grounded out to third, Tatis Jr. scored, Taylor to second.2–3
- 7Burger homered to right center (408 feet), Kelenic scored.1–3
- 6Langford doubled to left, Jung scored.1–1
- 3Machado doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML SD +105 / TEX -126
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.1%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −2 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +1 Elo | TEX 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 18–1717th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 9th of 301510 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–38 | 33–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–41–2 | 32–36–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–3 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.