San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ty FranceBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langford homered to left center (430 feet).7–9
- 8Sheets homered to right (391 feet).7–8
- 6Duran singled to center, Jung scored, Nimmo to third.6–8
- 4Langford doubled to center, Jung scored, Langford thrown out at third.6–7
- 4France homered to center (409 feet).6–6
- 1Díaz reached on infield single to third, Burger scored, Lopez to second.5–6
- 1Burger doubled to left, Duran scored and Osuna scored.5–5
- 1Osuna doubled to right, Jung scored and Nimmo scored, Duran to third.5–3
- 1Nimmo doubled to center, Pederson scored, Jung to third.5–1
- 1France homered to right (363 feet), Taylor scored, Sheets scored and Bogaerts scored.5–0
- 1Sheets singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Taylor to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML SD +130 / TEX -157
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.2%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -141
- SD +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.1 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +9 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +8 Elo | TEX 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 17–1719th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 10th of 301512 | Elo rating | 149814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–37 | 32–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 13–26 |
| Underdog | 23–14 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–41–2 | 31–36–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–2 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.