San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Owen CaissieBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade GibsonPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caissie hit sacrifice fly to left, Sanoja scored.3–4
- 7Hicks singled to right, Ruiz scored, Hicks to second, Sanoja to third.3–3
- 6Schmitt singled to right, Lee scored.3–2
- 6Devers homered to right center (413 feet).2–2
- 5Caissie doubled to right, Sanoja scored.1–2
- 2Susac hit sacrifice fly to left, Adames scored.1–1
- 1Caissie homered to center (401 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML SF -107 / MIA -112
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.8%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -102
- SF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +13 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +47 Elo | MIA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.112th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 23–168th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 148918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–40 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 25–24 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders | 35–33–6 | 42–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–11 MIA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.