San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Lopez doubled to center, Stowers scored.1–2
- 3Schmitt singled to right, Arraez scored, Eldridge to third.1–1
- 2Stowers homered to center (426 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 56%
- ML SF -144 / MIA +119
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- SF: Elo 48.9%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −15 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +8 Elo | MIA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 25–166th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 149217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–41 | 36–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 26–25 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders | 36–34–6 | 43–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–13 MIA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.