San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schmitt doubled to center, Lee scored.3–6
- 4Hernández homered to left (389 feet), Lopez scored.2–6
- 4Edwards grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Marsee scored, Stowers out at second, Lopez to third.2–4
- 4Marsee singled to center, Ruiz scored.2–3
- 4Schmitt homered to center (414 feet).2–2
- 2Mack scored, Edwards safe at first on error by pitcher McDonald, Stowers to second, Ruiz to third.1–2
- 2Gilbert singled to left, Lee scored, Schmitt to third.1–1
- 1Caissie walked, Lopez scored, Hernández to second, Edwards to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML SF +123 / MIA -149
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -133
- SF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.7 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +26 Elo | MIA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.112th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 24–168th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 149018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–40 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 17–18 |
| Underdog | 26–24 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34–6 | 42–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–12 MIA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.