Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stowers doubled to right, Mack scored, Lopez to third.4–3
- 8Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Burger scored, Osuna to third.4–2
- 8Osuna doubled to right, Nimmo scored, Burger to third.3–2
- 6Edwards tripled to left, Lopez scored, Edwards out stretching at home.2–2
- 5Sanoja hit sacrifice fly to center, Caissie scored.2–1
- 4Duran homered to center (407 feet), Nimmo scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML TEX +113 / MIA -136
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 52.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -123
- TEX +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | TEX: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +19 Elo | MIA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 16th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 26–166th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 13th of 301499 | Elo rating | 149316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–44 | 37–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 33–37–7 | 43–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.