San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Jung singled to left, Lopez scored, Langford to second.3–4
- 4Song doubled to right, Bogaerts scored, France to third.3–3
- 4Bogaerts singled to center, Machado scored, Sheets thrown out at home.2–3
- 4Sheets singled to right, Merrill scored, Machado to second.1–3
- 3Langford homered to left (403 feet), Higashioka scored and Lopez scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML SD +135 / TEX -163
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -146
- SD +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | SD: Wandy Peralta: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +11 Elo | TEX 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 18–1819th of 30 |
| 28th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Elo rating | 149814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–38 | 33–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–41–2 | 33–36–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 8–3 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.