Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pederson homered to center (426 feet).2–4
- 8Lopez homered to left center (427 feet), Navarreto scored.1–4
- 5Edwards singled to right, Caissie scored, Jiménez to third.1–2
- 4Conine doubled to right, Lopez scored.1–1
- 4Langford homered to center (437 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -122 / MIA +101
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.1%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- TEX -110
- MIA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −1 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +6 Elo | MIA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.010th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 27–176th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 13th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–45 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 34–38–7 | 44–33–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–5 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.