Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-4
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsee singled to center, Mack scored and Ruiz scored.4–0
- 8Stowers grounded out to first, Pauley scored, Edwards to second, Conine to third. Miami Marlins challenged: call on the field was overturned.2–0
- 8Pauley doubled to right, Ruiz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML MIA -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- STL: Elo 51.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- MIA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +12 Elo | STL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 22–1913th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 15th of 301495 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–42 | 46–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 20–23 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–34–3 | 34–39–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–11 STL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.