Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch BrattPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jordan singled to center, Nootbaar scored.9–4
- 9Fermín homered to left (387 feet).9–3
- 8Moreno hit sacrifice fly to left, Groover scored.9–2
- 7Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Troy scored.8–2
- 7Troy hit a ground rule double, Moreno scored.7–2
- 4Jordan hit sacrifice fly to center, Fermín scored.6–2
- 4Marte homered to left center (416 feet).6–1
- 4Groover homered to left (388 feet), Vargas scored.5–1
- 4Vargas doubled to left, Troy scored and Arenado scored.3–1
- 4Troy reached on infield single to second, Carroll scored, Arenado to second.1–1
- 2Jordan doubled to left, Fermín scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML ARI -102 / STL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- STL: Elo 50.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- ARI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −16 | ARI: Mitch Bratt (no track record yet) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL 0 Elo | STL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 22–1810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 13th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–35 | 46–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–22 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 29–13 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–42–6 | 33–39–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 10–10 STL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.