St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nathan ChurchBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dubón scored on Fernandez wild pitch, Yastrzemski to third on wild pitch by Fernandez.5–3
- 8Dubón scored on Fernandez wild pitch, Yastrzemski to third on wild pitch by Fernandez.5–3
- 7Albies singled to center, Mateo scored, Baldwin to second.5–2
- 6Jordan hit sacrifice fly to right, Winn scored.5–1
- 4Church homered to right (391 feet), Winn scored and Nootbaar scored.4–1
- 4Velázquez homered to center (444 feet).1–1
- 3Albies hit sacrifice fly to left, Mateo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML STL +123 / ATL -149
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.9%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -133
- STL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +6 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +84 Elo | ATL 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 24–144th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 19th of 301488 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–35 | 48–34 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 30–26 |
| Underdog | 36–17 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 34–42–5 | 38–38–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–10 ATL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.