Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yuki MatsuiPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Machado singled to center, Merrill scored.6–7
- 7Tatis Jr. homered to center (410 feet).6–6
- 5Dubón homered to left (382 feet).6–5
- 4Albies doubled to left, Harris II scored.5–5
- 2Taylor reached on infield single to shortstop, Song and Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by shortstop Dubón, Taylor to second.4–5
- 2Tatis Jr. doubled to right, Durán scored, Song to third.4–3
- 2Song singled to left, Wagner scored, Durán to second.4–2
- 2Durán singled to left, Bogaerts scored, Wagner to second.4–1
- 2Olson walked, Tellez scored, Albies to second, Harris II to third.4–0
- 2Harris II doubled to right, Baldwin scored, Tellez to third.3–0
- 2Tellez singled to center, Dubón and Smith scored, Baldwin to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML ATL -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- SD: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | 0 | ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Wandy Peralta: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +13 Elo | SD 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3024–15 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 4th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–31 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–25 | 13–24 |
| Underdog | 17–6 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 37–34–6 | 32–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–17 SD in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.