Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting3-4
- Grant HolmesPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Machado homered to center (418 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML ATL -103 / SD -117
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SD: Elo 49.4%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- SD -106
- ATL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.7 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +4 Elo | ATL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–14 | Road vs home | 19–1919th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 4th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–31 | 38–38 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–25 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 37–33–6 | 32–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–16 SD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.