Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting1-3
- Bryce ElderPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Devers homered to right (359 feet), Arraez scored and Schmitt scored.0–5
- 2Gilbert hit sacrifice fly to left, Eldridge scored.0–2
- 2Devers homered to center (404 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML ATL +108 / SF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- SF: Elo 47.9%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -118
- ATL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +9 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +14 Elo | ATL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–17 | Road vs home | 16–2228th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 147924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–32 | 36–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–25 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36–6 | 37–38–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–12 SF in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.