Athletics at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jeff McNeilBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Giants- Victor BericotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy singled to left, Heim scored and Butler scored.9–6
- 9Butler singled to right, Soderstrom scored, Heim to third.7–6
- 9Heim singled to left, Bolte scored, Soderstrom to second.6–6
- 8McNeil singled to right, Butler scored.5–6
- 7Langeliers singled to center, McNeil scored and Williams scored, Kurtz to second.4–6
- 6Bericoto homered to center (445 feet), Lee scored.2–6
- 6Lee tripled to center, Eldridge scored, Schmitt scored and Adames scored.2–4
- 5Kurtz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Williams scored, Bolte out at second.2–1
- 5Williams doubled to left, McNeil scored.1–1
- 4Adames homered to left center (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 56%
- ML ATH +118 / SF -142
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- SF: Elo 59.8%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -128
- ATH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.0 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −47 | −9 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 2.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +69 Elo | SF 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.628th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 16–2027th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301471 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–39 | 36–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 31–14 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38–4 | 36–37–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 6–13 SF in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.