Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Dubón scored.3–1
- 3Albies singled to center, Dubón scored.2–1
- 2Smith singled to center, Riley scored.1–1
- 1Devers doubled to right, Schmitt scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / SF +104
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.6%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -113
- SF +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +3 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +32 Elo | ATL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 16–2128th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301531 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–32 | 36–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–25 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–35–6 | 37–37–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 9–12 SF in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.