Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-4
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Riley grounded out to first, Olson scored.2–3
- 8Harris II hit sacrifice fly to left, White scored.1–3
- 7Arraez hit sacrifice fly to right, Gilbert scored, Chapman to third.0–3
- 6Lee reached on infield single to second, Ramos scored on error, Devers to second, Lee to second, Devers safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Albies.0–2
- 6Devers reached on infield single to third, Arraez scored on throwing error by third baseman Riley, Ramos safe at third on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -186 / SF +153
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.3%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -165
- SF +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 3.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +2 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +44 Elo | ATL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–18 | Road vs home | 17–2228th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–33 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–25 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders | 38–37–6 | 37–39–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–13 SF in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.