St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.2 IP, 10 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bregman doubled to left, Ramirez scored.17–1
- 7Torres homered to right (369 feet).17–0
- 6Herrera singled to center, Church scored and Jordan scored, Wetherholt to second.16–0
- 5Burleson singled to right, Herrera scored and Walker scored, Velázquez to third.14–0
- 5Velázquez walked, Jordan scored, Walker to second, Herrera to third.12–0
- 4Winn homered to left center (391 feet), Velázquez scored and Burleson scored.11–0
- 4Burleson singled to right, Herrera scored and Walker scored, Velázquez to third.8–0
- 3Fermín doubled to center, Winn scored.6–0
- 3Winn singled to right, Walker scored.5–0
- 3Velázquez hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored, Walker to third.4–0
- 2Church homered to right (384 feet), Fermín scored and Jordan scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML STL +114 / CHC -137
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.0 – 5.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +47 Elo | CHC 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 26–177th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 30 |
| 18th of 301491 | Elo rating | 15374th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–36 | 37–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 20–36 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 35–44–5 | 45–37–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 19–23 CHC in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 42.