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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Padres.TV

Away

Padres

43-40

2–3

at

Home

Cubs

47-38

SD 41%CHC 59%

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Wrigley Field · MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Padres.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.

CHC75%50%75%SDStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Padres
  • Miguel AndujarBatting3-4
  • Griffin CanningPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cubs
  • Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 2 RBI
  • Shota ImanagaPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Suzuki singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Bregman to third.2–3
  • 5Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Swanson scored.2–2
  • 4Conforto singled to right, Suzuki scored, Hoerner to second.2–1
  • 4Bogaerts doubled to left, Andujar scored, France to third.2–0
  • 3Tatis Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bogaerts scored, Fermin out at third.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Cubs 59%

LeanHit
SD 41%CHC 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
CHC 59%
ML SD +135 / CHC -164
Pre-line forecast
CHC 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CHC 56%
Ratings vs. market
−3.4 pts
CHC: Elo 56.0%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
CHC -146
SD +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SD 5.3 – 6.2 CHC
Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSDCHCWhy
Team rating15141531Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−8−1SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCHC +42 EloCHC 56.0%
Market-implied ratingsCHC 59.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCHC 58.6%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCHC 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs compared, with each team's league rank
SDStatCHC
30th of 303.9Runs scored4.95th of 30
8th of 304.1Runs allowed4.415th of 30
18th of 30−0.2Margin+0.55th of 30
9th of 306–4Last 108–21st of 30
8th of 3019–17Road vs home23–179th of 30
23rd of 301498Opponent Elo149724th of 30
8th of 301514Elo rating15314th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PadresCubs
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSDCHC
Run line40–4235–49
Last 105–58–2
Favorite14–2518–35
Underdog26–1717–14
Overs–unders35–45–243–36–5
Overs–unders, last 105–58–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SD 12–13 CHC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 25.