Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward singled to right, Pages scored.15–3
- 8Tucker singled to left, Freeman scored and Muncy scored.14–3
- 8Edman grounded out to first, Pages scored, Muncy to second, Freeman to third.12–3
- 8Muncy reached on infield single to third, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second, Pages to third.11–3
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to left, Wagner scored, Fermin to second.10–3
- 6Sheets singled to right, Taylor scored, Merrill to third.10–2
- 6Betts homered to center (402 feet), Ohtani scored and Pages scored.10–1
- 6Freeman grounded out to second, Freeland scored, Pages to second, Ohtani to third.7–1
- 6Rushing homered to right center (399 feet).6–1
- 6Tucker homered to right (398 feet), Edman scored.5–1
- 6Edman tripled to right, Muncy scored.3–1
- 6Freeman scored on error, Muncy safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Wagner, Muncy safe at second on error.2–1
- 5Sheets homered to center (414 feet).1–1
- 2Edman doubled to center, Muncy scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML LAD -216 / SD +176
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.1%, market 65.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -189
- SD +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −18 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Kyle Hart: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–16 | Road vs home | 23–1910th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 1st of 301571 | Elo rating | 15187th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–43 | 40–40 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–42 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 37–44–1 | 34–44–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 28–20 SD in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 48.