Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Alex CallBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin VothPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee homered to right (349 feet).12–3
- 9Muncy doubled to right, Pages and Betts scored, Edman to third.12–2
- 9Pages singled to right, Rojas scored.10–2
- 9Rojas doubled to left, Freeland scored.9–2
- 9Call homered to left (368 feet).8–2
- 7Robinson hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Call scored, Freeland to second.7–2
- 6Freeman doubled to right, Pages scored.6–2
- 4Betts singled to center, Pages scored, Freeman to second.5–2
- 4Freeman singled to center, Robinson scored, Pages to third.4–2
- 4Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to left, Call scored.3–2
- 3Bell singled to center, Buxton scored.2–2
- 3Freeman scored on error, Edman safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Keaschall.2–1
- 2Caratini homered to left center (369 feet).1–1
- 1Edman singled to center, Ohtani scored, Pages to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -181 / MIN +149
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -160
- MIN +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Kendry Rojas: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +64 Elo | LAD 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–15 | Road vs home | 20–2019th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 1st of 301570 | Elo rating | 147725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–41 | 41–39 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 35–43–1 | 46–28–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–3 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.