Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman homered to center (423 feet).2–1
- 1Buxton homered to left center (394 feet).1–1
- 1Ohtani homered to right (414 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -156 / MIN +129
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.4 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −3 | LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +75 Elo | LAD 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 1st of 301570 | Elo rating | 147826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–40 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–39 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders | 35–42–1 | 46–27–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–3 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.