Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Padres- Ty FranceBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to center, Durán scored.1–7
- 8Durán doubled to left, Song scored.1–6
- 8Song singled to center, Bogaerts scored and Bowen scored, Song to second, France thrown out at third.1–5
- 2France homered to left (372 feet), Machado scored and Sheets scored.1–3
- 2Betts homered to left (360 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -149 / SD +124
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.3%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -134
- SD +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.1 – 3.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +5 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +23 Elo | LAD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 22–1913th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 1st of 301574 | Elo rating | 15157th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–42 | 39–40 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–41 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44–1 | 33–44–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 28–19 SD in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 47.