Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Twins- Ryan KreidlerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 3Call hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.4–3
- 3Muncy singled to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to second, Freeman to third.3–3
- 3Ohtani singled to center, Freeland scored.2–3
- 2Kreidler singled to center, Lee scored and Gray scored, Kreidler thrown out at second.1–3
- 2Caratini scored on a passed ball by Rushing, Gray to second on passed ball by Rushing, Lee to third on passed ball by Rushing.1–1
- 2Caratini scored on a passed ball by Rushing, Gray to second on passed ball by Rushing, Lee to third on passed ball by Rushing.1–1
- 2Betts homered to left center (399 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML LAD -164 / MIN +135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +7 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +83 Elo | LAD 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3025–15 | Road vs home | 20–2120th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 1st of 301573 | Elo rating | 147527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–41 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–40 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders | 36–43–1 | 47–28–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–3 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.