Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bogaerts singled to center, Merrill scored.4–2
- 5Betts singled to center, Ohtani scored and Pages scored, Freeman to third.4–1
- 5Freeman walked, Freeland scored, Pages to second, Ohtani to third.2–1
- 4Machado homered to left center (367 feet).1–1
- 3Ohtani singled to left, Freeland scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -137 / SD +114
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +5 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +13 Elo | LAD 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–16 | Road vs home | 23–2013th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 1st of 301574 | Elo rating | 15157th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–43 | 40–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 37–42 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44–1 | 35–44–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 29–20 SD in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 49.