St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley singled to left, Dubón scored, Smith to second.1–5
- 8Dubón reached on bunt single to catcher, Albies scored, Harris II to second.1–4
- 8Harris II singled to center, Baldwin scored, Albies to third.1–3
- 3Albies homered to right center (380 feet).1–2
- 1Albies doubled to right, Baldwin scored, Albies thrown out at third.1–1
- 1Walker singled to right, Herrera scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML STL +117 / ATL -141
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.5%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -127
- STL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +53 Elo | ATL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 24–156th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15276th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–35 | 48–35 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 30–27 |
| Underdog | 37–17 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 34–43–5 | 38–39–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–10 ATL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.