St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin BruihlPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Braves- Dominic SmithBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burleson homered to right (395 feet).11–5
- 7Winn grounded into fielder's choice to first, Walker scored, Nootbaar third. Atlanta Braves challenged: call on the field was upheld.10–5
- 7Nootbaar doubled to right, Burleson scored, Walker to third.9–5
- 7Walker singled to left, Wetherholt scored, Burleson to third.8–5
- 7Herrera singled to center, Fermín scored, Wetherholt to third.7–5
- 7Wetherholt singled to center, Torres scored, Fermín to third.6–5
- 7Church homered to right center (392 feet), Winn scored.5–5
- 1Yastrzemski hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.3–5
- 1Smith doubled to right, Albies scored, Dubón scored and Olson scored.3–4
- 1Dubón singled to center, Baldwin scored, Olson to second, Albies to third.3–1
- 1Walker homered to left center (396 feet), Wetherholt scored and Herrera scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML STL +103 / ATL -124
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.1%, market 52.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -112
- STL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −8 | STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +49 Elo | ATL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 25–154th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 19th of 301488 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–36 | 49–35 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 31–27 |
| Underdog | 37–18 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 34–44–5 | 38–40–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–11 ATL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.