San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Sung-Mun SongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-5, 3 HR, 8 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Busch homered to right center (412 feet).3–23
- 8Swanson homered to left center (387 feet), Dean scored, Conforto scored and Amaya scored.3–22
- 8Amaya singled to right, Alcántara scored, Conforto to second, Dean to third.3–18
- 8Conforto singled to right, Suzuki scored, Dean to second, Alcántara to third.3–17
- 8Alcántara singled to left, Busch scored, Suzuki to third.3–16
- 8Andujar singled to right, Taylor scored.3–15
- 6Conforto homered to left center (384 feet), Happ scored.2–15
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to right (390 feet), Amaya scored and Swanson scored.2–13
- 5Conforto homered to center (433 feet).2–10
- 5France hit a ground rule double, Machado scored.2–9
- 5Song homered to right center (385 feet).1–9
- 3Swanson homered to center (434 feet), Conforto scored and Amaya scored.0–9
- 3Amaya singled to center, Happ scored and Suzuki scored, Conforto to third.0–6
- 2Swanson homered to left (397 feet).0–4
- 1Suzuki homered to center (426 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored and Bregman scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML SD +108 / CHC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.9%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -118
- SD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.8 – 6.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −9 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +20 Elo | CHC 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 25–178th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 30 |
| 9th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15334th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–43 | 36–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 19–36 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46–2 | 44–37–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–15 CHC in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 27.
- Jun 30SD 7 @ CHC 9Picked CHC 56%Hit
- Jun 29SD 2 @ CHC 3Picked CHC 59%Hit
- Apr 29CHC 5 @ SD 4Picked SD 51%Miss
- Apr 28CHC 8 @ SD 3Picked CHC 52%Hit
- Apr 27CHC 7 @ SD 9Picked SD 52%Hit
- Oct 2SD 1 @ CHC 3PlayoffsPicked CHC 51%Hit
- Oct 1SD 3 @ CHC 0PlayoffsPicked CHC 51%Miss
- Sep 30SD 1 @ CHC 3PlayoffsPicked CHC 55%Hit