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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Padres.TV

Away

Padres

43-41

7–9

at

Home

Cubs

48-38

SD 44%CHC 56%

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Wrigley Field · MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Padres.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.

CHC75%50%75%SDStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Padres
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
  • JP SearsPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Cubs
  • Dansby SwansonBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
  • Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Tatis Jr. homered to right center (370 feet).7–9
  • 8Sheets homered to right center (414 feet), France scored and Bogaerts scored.6–9
  • 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (377 feet).3–9
  • 5Swanson homered to left center (437 feet), Happ scored.3–8
  • 5Busch homered to right center (424 feet).3–6
  • 3Machado homered to right (372 feet), Fermin scored.3–5
  • 2Bregman homered to left center (415 feet), Alcántara scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.1–5
  • 2Swanson homered to center (432 feet).1–2
  • 1Kelly singled to center, Suzuki scored.1–1
  • 1Tatis Jr. homered to left (425 feet).1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Cubs 56%

LeanHit
SD 44%CHC 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
CHC 56%
ML SD +119 / CHC -144
Pre-line forecast
CHC 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CHC 57%
Ratings vs. market
+0.7 pts
CHC: Elo 57.1%, market 56.4%
Fair odds
CHC -129
SD +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SD 5.2 – 5.8 CHC
Margin from the forecast, posted total 11

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSDCHCWhy
Team rating15131532Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−6+7SD: JP Sears: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCHC +49 EloCHC 57.1%
Market-implied ratingsCHC 56.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCHC 56.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCHC 56.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs compared, with each team's league rank
SDStatCHC
30th of 303.9Runs scored4.95th of 30
8th of 304.1Runs allowed4.414th of 30
18th of 30−0.2Margin+0.55th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 108–21st of 30
9th of 3019–18Road vs home24–178th of 30
19th of 301498Opponent Elo149824th of 30
9th of 301513Elo rating15325th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PadresCubs
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSDCHC
Run line41–4235–50
Last 105–57–3
Favorite14–2518–36
Underdog27–1717–14
Overs–unders35–46–243–37–5
Overs–unders, last 105–57–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SD 12–14 CHC in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 26.