St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Wetherholt scored.4–6
- 6Ramirez hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored on throwing error by right fielder Walker.3–6
- 6Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Busch scored, Hoerner to second, Swanson second, Hoerner safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Fermín.3–4
- 6Hoerner singled to right, Kelly scored, Busch to second.3–3
- 6Walker homered to left center (409 feet), Wetherholt scored and Burleson scored.3–2
- 1Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored, Busch to second, Kelly to third.0–2
- 1Bregman doubled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML STL +119 / CHC -143
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +9 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +73 Elo | CHC 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3024–18 | Road vs home | 26–198th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–36 | 37–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 20–38 |
| Underdog | 40–18 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45–5 | 46–38–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 21–23 CHC in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 44.