Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-2, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Neill homered to left center (433 feet).9–7
- 8Mayo homered to left (420 feet).9–6
- 7Ward singled to left, Henderson scored, Rutschman to third.9–5
- 7O'Neill homered to left (369 feet).9–4
- 7Suzuki homered to left (401 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored and Busch scored.9–3
- 7Swanson scored on Wolfram wild pitch, Busch to second on wild pitch by Wolfram, Crow-Armstrong to third on wild pitch by Wolfram.6–3
- 7Swanson scored on Wolfram wild pitch, Busch to second on wild pitch by Wolfram, Crow-Armstrong to third on wild pitch by Wolfram.6–3
- 7Bregman hit sacrifice fly to right, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong to second, Swanson to third.5–3
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (419 feet).4–3
- 5Kelly homered to left (404 feet).3–3
- 5Conforto homered to right (368 feet).2–3
- 4Alonso homered to center (411 feet), Ward scored.1–3
- 3Henderson grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Alexander scored, Holliday out at second.1–1
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right (370 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML CHC +105 / BAL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 47.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 5.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +19 Elo | CHC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3024–21 | Road vs home | 24–2417th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 148620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–52 | 45–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 23–27 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–39–5 | 49–39–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–2 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.