Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alan RangelPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schwarber homered to right (387 feet).5–11
- 6Marte doubled to left, De La Cruz scored, Steer scored and Bleday scored.4–11
- 6Bleday singled to center, Friedl scored, De La Cruz to third.4–8
- 6Realmuto homered to left (354 feet).4–7
- 5Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Harper scored.3–7
- 4Bleday homered to right center (384 feet).2–7
- 4Stewart homered to right (358 feet).2–6
- 4De La Cruz homered to right center (387 feet), Arroyo scored.2–5
- 4Marte homered to left center (371 feet).2–3
- 3Stewart homered to right (356 feet), De La Cruz scored.2–2
- 2Crawford scored on Burns wild pitch.2–0
- 2Crawford scored on Burns wild pitch.2–0
- 2Crawford tripled to right, Rincones Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 56%
- ML PHI +119 / CIN -144
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 50.4%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +20 | PHI: Alan Rangel: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +3 Elo | CIN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–20 | Road vs home | 20–2525th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 5th of 301528 | Elo rating | 147825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–52 | 45–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 28–40 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders | 39–48–5 | 51–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–12 CIN in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.