Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-4
- Cristopher SanchezPitching3.1 IP, 9 ER, 1 K
Royals- Tyler TolbertBatting5-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caglianone singled to right, Maile scored, Collins to second, Massey to third.1–15
- 8Massey singled to center, Tolbert scored, Maile to second.1–14
- 7Loftin grounded out to first, Massey scored, Caglianone to second, Collins to third.1–13
- 7Caglianone singled to right, Misner scored, Collins to second, Massey to third.1–12
- 6Marte singled to center, Witt Jr. scored, Loftin to second.1–11
- 5Tolbert homered to left (376 feet).1–10
- 4Thomas homered to left center (403 feet).1–9
- 3Tolbert doubled to center, Loftin scored.1–8
- 2Perez homered to left center (401 feet).1–7
- 1Maile homered to right center (396 feet), Marte scored and Tolbert scored.1–6
- 1Marte singled to left, Loftin scored, Marte to second.1–3
- 1Loftin singled to right, Caglianone scored, Loftin to second.1–2
- 1Caglianone grounded into fielder's choice to second, Witt Jr. scored on throwing error by shortstop Turner, Caglianone to second, Perez out at second.1–1
- 1Bohm doubled to center, Turner scored, Harper to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML PHI -219 / KC +178
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -191
- KC +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.0 – 3.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −12 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +70 Elo | PHI 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.930th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–19 | Road vs home | 20–2627th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 5th of 301531 | Elo rating | 147227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–51 | 45–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders | 38–47–5 | 43–45–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–4 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.