Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Collins homered to center (428 feet).5–2
- 5Mullins homered to right (385 feet), Simpson scored.5–1
- 2Feduccia tripled to right, Palacios scored.3–1
- 2Palacios singled to left, Walls scored.2–1
- 2Walls doubled to right, Simpson scored.1–1
- 1Jensen homered to center (449 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -122 / KC +101
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- TB: Elo 55.8%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -110
- KC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.1 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −14 | TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +40 Elo | TB 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 19–2426th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150011th of 30 |
| 7th of 301518 | Elo rating | 147527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–33 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–20 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders | 37–42–4 | 43–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 14–11 KC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.