Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mullins singled to right, Mesa Jr. scored, Mullins to second.4–0
- 6Mullins homered to right (387 feet).3–0
- 1Caminero homered to left (425 feet), Aranda scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML TB -155 / KC +128
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TB: Elo 54.4%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -139
- KC +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −18 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +31 Elo | TB 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 19–2324th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 7th of 301516 | Elo rating | 147726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–33 | 44–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–20 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 37–41–4 | 43–41–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 13–11 KC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.