Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte homered to center (430 feet).2–4
- 6Mullins hit sacrifice fly to center, Mesa Jr. scored, Simpson to third.1–4
- 5Aranda homered to right center (391 feet), Díaz scored.1–3
- 1Caminero homered to left (361 feet).1–1
- 1Carroll singled to right, Perdomo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML ARI +123 / TB -148
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- TB: Elo 54.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- ARI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | ARI: Jose Cabrera: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Cole Sulser: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +30 Elo | TB 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.28th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–36 | 46–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–22 | 28–20 |
| Underdog | 30–14 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–43–6 | 36–39–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–8 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.