Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. homered to center (432 feet).10–4
- 6Walls walked, DeLuca scored, Williamson to second, Simpson to third.10–3
- 6Vilade scored on Cerantola wild pitch, Simpson to second on wild pitch by Cerantola, DeLuca to third on wild pitch by Cerantola.9–3
- 6Vilade scored on Cerantola wild pitch, Simpson to second on wild pitch by Cerantola, DeLuca to third on wild pitch by Cerantola.9–3
- 5Fortes singled to left, Williamson scored and Walls scored, Fortes thrown out at second. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was upheld.8–3
- 3Witt Jr. homered to left center (416 feet), Collins scored.6–3
- 3Williamson singled to center, DeLuca scored.6–1
- 3Vilade homered to left center (416 feet).5–1
- 3Caminero homered to left center (438 feet), Díaz scored and Aranda scored.4–1
- 3Aranda singled to center, Fortes scored, Díaz to third.1–1
- 1Jensen homered to right center (421 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML TB -112 / KC -108
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- TB: Elo 52.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -102
- KC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 19–2223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 8th of 301513 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–33 | 44–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–20 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 36–41–4 | 42–41–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–11 KC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.