Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte homered to center (424 feet).1–5
- 6Williamson homered to left center (402 feet).0–5
- 5Caminero homered to center (463 feet).0–4
- 2Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Walls scored.0–3
- 2Mullins homered to right center (404 feet).0–2
- 1Caminero singled to left, Díaz scored, Aranda to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML ARI +167 / TB -204
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- TB: Elo 55.4%, market 64.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -179
- ARI +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +37 Elo | TB 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.37th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 30–121st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 151110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–37 | 47–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–22 | 29–20 |
| Underdog | 30–15 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–44–6 | 36–40–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–9 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.